• Introduction au Forex
• Déroulement d'une négociation Forex
• Analyse fondamentale
• Analyse technique
• Glossaire FX

Analyse technique

De quoi s'agit-il ?

[Translate to French:] Technical analysis is another method of forecasting prices. It is the study of past price and market action for the purpose of predicting future price movements. It is an effort to forecast future market activity by analyzing market data such as charts, price trends, and volume.

The technical analyst focuses exclusively on market information - or price movements. The pure technician works on the assumption that all fundamental information is already reflected in the price, and it is therefore only interesting to study the market's resulting behavior. Unlike the fundamentalist, the technician attempts to predict future price directions by searching for established patterns of price behavior that have signaled major movements in the past.

Charts are the major tool in technical analysis. The most popular charts are the Bar Charts. In a Bar Chart each bar consists of a vertical line that demarcates the price span from the highest to the lowest price of a given time period (usually a trading day).

The following is an introduction to the most common technical analytical tools used to identify trends and recurring patterns in a volatile market.

Les courbes

L'analyse technique fait appel à trois principaux types de courbes :

Les niveaux de support et de résistance

[Translate to French:] One use of technical analysis is to derive "support" and "resistance" levels. The underlying idea is that the market will tend to trade above its support levels and below its resistance levels. A support level indicates a specific price level that the currency will have difficulties crossing below. If the price repeatedly fails to move below this particular point, a straight line pattern will appear.

Resistance levels on the other hand, indicates a specific price level that the currency will have difficulties crossing above. Recurring failure for the price to move above this point will produce a straight line pattern.

If a support or resistance level is broken, the market is then expected to follow through in that direction. These levels are determined through analysis of the chart and by assessment of where the market has encountered unbroken support or resistance in the past.

Les moyennes mobiles

[Translate to French:] Moving averages provide another tool for tracking price trends. A moving average is in its simplest form an average of prices that rolls over time. A 10-day moving average is calculated by adding the last 10 days’ closing prices and then dividing them by 10. On the following day, the oldest price is dropped, and the new day’s closing price is added instead; now these 10 prices are divided by 10. In this way, the average "moves" each day.

Moving averages provide a more mechanical approach to entering or exiting the market. To help identify entry and exit points, moving averages are frequently superimposed onto bar charts. When the market closes above the moving average, it is generally interpreted as a buy signal. It is in the same way considered a sell signal when the market closes below the moving average. Some traders prefer to see the moving average line actually change direction before accepting it as a buy or sell signal.

The sensitivity of a moving average line and the number of buy and sell signals it produces is directly correlated with the chosen time period for the moving average. A 5-day moving average will be more sensitive and will prompt more buy and sell signals than a 20-day moving average. If the average is too sensitive, traders may find themselves jumping in and out of the market too often. On the other hand, if the moving average is not sensitive enough, traders risk missing opportunities by identifying buy and sell signals too late.

In general, moving averages have their value and if used properly, they can be useful tools for the technical trader.