Technical analysis
Dienstag, 29 Mai 2012 - 11:02
29.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD steady, ahead of this week’s US Non-Farm Payroll
EUR/USD is steady ahead of the NFP release, still attempting to unwind from oversold price conditions, with both momentum and net short positions holding at their extremes.
Expect a temporary relief bounce over the coming sessions into 1.2910/12 and potentially 1.3000 (psychological level). Only a sustained move at these levels would neutralize the extreme market condition.
In terms of the big picture, key structural support remains at 1.2125/30, which would equate to EUR/USD losing half of its gains from the bull market taken from the year 2000.
Inversely, the USD Index is also unwinding from overbought conditions, after rocketing above the previous 2012 peak at 81.78.
This week’s US Non-Farm Payroll will likely influence. Momentum has decelerated since early 2012 and is likely to extend into the key level at 54k (2011 low), potentially renewing safe haven flows back into the USD.
Download the 29.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Montag, 28 Mai 2012 - 11:25
28.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD unwinds from oversold conditions
EUR/USD is attempting to unwind from oversold price conditions, with both momentum and net short positions at extremes.
Expect a temporary relief bounce over the coming sessions into 1.2910/12 and potentially 1.3000 (psychological level). Only a sustained move at these levels would neutralize the extreme market condition.
In terms of the big picture, key structural support remains at 1.2125/30, which would equate to EUR/USD losing half of its gains from the bull market taken from the year 2000.
Inversely, the USD Index is also unwinding from overbought conditions, after rocketing above the previous 2012 peak at 81.78.
Download the 28.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Freitag, 25 Mai 2012 - 11:31
25.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
GBPUSD Heading towards 1.5603 support
GBP/USD has extended the decline from 1.6302 to settle below the 1.5805 support level, aborting a basing attempt.
While we could see a corrective rebound over the next few sessions to unwind an oversold state the structure remains negative while under 1.6063, with the risk seen for a crack at key support at 1.5603 (12th March low) then psychological 1.5500 in a much deeper retracement of the 1.5235 advance.
We would need to see the re-capture of 1.6063 to suggest that an important reaction low has formed, with scope then for an attack on 1.6302 then 1.6500/1.6618 (psychological/August reaction high) as the 1.5235 bull run extends.
Download the 25.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Donnerstag, 24 Mai 2012 - 13:07
24.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD renewed setbacks triggers fresh 2012 lows
EUR/USD’s renewed setbacks are continuing to trigger fresh 2012 lows. However, price conditions remain very oversold and unsustainable, with both extreme momentum and net short positions.
There is still growing probability for a temporary relief bounce over the coming sessions into 1.2910/12 and potentially 1.3000 (psychological level). Only a sustained move around these levels would help neutralize the extreme market condition.
In terms of the big picture, key structural support remains at 1.2125/30, which would equate to EUR/USD losing half of its gains from the bull market taken from the year 2000.
Inversely, the USD Index recovery has rocketed much higher above the previous 2012 peak at 81.78. The move is overbought and is showing signs of price exhaustion after exhibiting a doji candlestick pattern.
Download the 24.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Mittwoch, 23 Mai 2012 - 11:26
23.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
USD/CAD – Strength above 1.0200 maintains bullish structure
USD/CAD’s latest bullish breakout above the 200-day average and multi-month triangle pattern (see daily chart) has seen further upside gains, retracing over 76.4 per cent of the YTD decline.
While we could see some corrective downside to unwind the latest surge higher, the medium-term bullish scenario targets resistance at 1.0250, thereby resuming the larger cycle recovery higher into 1.0424 (14th December high).
Meanwhile, only a decisive break back beneath 0.9960 and 0.9776 would resume the multi-month downtrend into next support at 0.9726.
EUR/CAD has rebounded sharply from just above key support at 1.2760 (2011 swing low) as a short squeeze unfolds following a false downside break reflecting CAD underperformance.
Download the 23.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Dienstag, 22 Mai 2012 - 11:17
22.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
USD/CAD – Further upside potential
USD/CAD’s latest bullish breakout above the 200-day average and multi-month triangle pattern (see daily chart) has seen further upside gains, retracing over 76.4 per cent of the YTD decline.
While we could see some corrective downside to unwind the latest surge higher, the medium-term bullish scenario targets resistance at 1.0250, thereby resuming the larger cycle recovery higher into 1.0424 (14th December high).
Meanwhile, only a decisive break back beneath 0.9960 and 0.9776 would resume the multi-month downtrend into next support at 0.9726.
EUR/CAD has rebounded sharply from just above key support at 1.2760 (2011 swing low) as a short squeeze unfolds following a false downside break reflecting CAD underperformance.
Download the 22.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Montag, 21 Mai 2012 - 10:45
21.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/CHF – Remains vulnerable to the downside
Exited Short at 1.2770.
EUR/USD is correcting higher from ahead of the 2012 swing low at 1.2624 as the market sees some unwinding of the recent oversold condition.
Expect a potential oversold bounce into 1.2910/12 and 1.3000 (psychological level) over coming sessions before fresh supply comes in for a resumption of the decline through 1.2624 towards the 1.2500 area next.
Only a sustained move above 1.3000 would help neutralize the extreme market condition.
Inversely, the USD Index recovery has rocketed much higher into key resistance at 81.78 (13th Jan swing high). The move is overbought and due a healthy unwind back into 80.73 (15th March high), then 79.82.
Expect these levels to hold and help re-launch the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle for a move above 81.78.
Download the 21.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Freitag, 18 Mai 2012 - 13:38
18.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
USD/CAD – Next targets 1.0280
Achieved Price Objective Two (1.0160). Stop raised to 1.0080.
USD/CAD’s latest bullish breakout above the 200-day average and multi-month triangle pattern (see daily chart) signals further upside recovery. Our model portfolio remains long.
The medium-term bullish scenario now targets resistance at 1.0250, thereby resuming the larger cycle recovery higher into 1.0424 (14th December high).
Meanwhile, only a decisive break back beneath 0.9960 and 0.9776 would resume the multi-month downtrend into next support at 0.9726.
EUR/CAD, which tends to share a positive correlation with EUR/USD, remains negative after breaking its multi-month range onto fresh new lows. Watch for extended setbacks into key support at 1.2760 (2011 swing low).
Download the 18.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Donnerstag, 17 Mai 2012 - 12:17
17.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD – Further weakness anticipated towards 1.2625
Achieved Price Objective Two (1.2850). Stop lowered (1.2770), to lock in further profits within our model portfolio, amidst high volatility.
EUR/USD’s multi-month reversal pattern has extended its setback and, as anticipated, now targets 1.2624 (2012 swing low).
However, the slide is still very overstretched and due some temporary unwinding over the next few sessions.
Expect a potential oversold bounce into 1.2910/12 and 1.3000 (psychological level). Only a sustained move above here will help neutralize the extreme market condition.
Inversely, the USD Index recovery has rocketed much higher into key resistance at 81.78 (13th Jan swing high). The move is overbought and due a healthy unwind back into 80.73 (15th March high), then 79.82.
Expect these levels to hold and help re-launch the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle for a move above 81.78.
Download the 17.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
Mittwoch, 16 Mai 2012 - 11:27
16.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
EUR/USD setback targets 1.2624 (2012 low)
Achieved Price Objective Two (1.2850). Stop lowered (1.2770), to lock in further profits within our model portfolio, amidst high volatility.
EUR/USD’s multi-month reversal pattern has extended its setback and, as anticipated, now targets 1.2624 (2012 swing low).
However, the slide is still very overstretched and due some temporary unwinding over the next few sessions.
Expect a potential oversold bounce into 1.2910/12 and 1.3000 (psychological level). Only a sustained move above here will help neutralize the extreme market condition.
Inversely, the USD Index recovery has rocketed much higher into key resistance at 81.78 (13th Jan swing high). The move is overbought and due a healthy unwind back into 80.73 (15th March high), then 79.82.
Expect these levels to hold and help re-launch the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle for a move above 81.78.
Download the 16.05.2012 Daily Technical Report
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